Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Sow Joan's Stalk Market-Update

I'm not prepared to declare I've found any pattern to the White Turnip Trade in Animal Crossing: Wild World for the DS but I would like to share a few quick thoughts. For the uninitiated, you access the Stalk Market by talking to Sow Joan on Sundays between 6am and 12noon. That's when you buy. You sell through Tom Nook. Ask him for his Turnip Price first.

So far my best guess--based on the limited data I've collected--would be that we're dealing with a random number generator. The number is thrown out if it is outside of a predetermined boundary. Sow Joan's price for turnips is generated the same way but with a much smaller set of numbers to "choose" from. That is a number is generated but if it falls outside of say 90-115 then a new number is generated until the number is greater than 90 but less than 115.

The point is that on initial inspection it appears that it may be impossible to determine a pattern from the data set. Of course, if the number is pseudo random some useful pattern may yet appear. The DS could be generating true randoms from ambient mic noise, stylus inputs, clock outputs, or analog button presses however. Only a statistical analysis of the occurence of given numbers in the data set would be conclusive.

Since we know that the game uses random numbers to generate dinosaur fossils from unidentified rocks it might be possible to use fossil data as well. I'm sure the same random number generator or array is used. That might make it possible to determine the array or the boundaries of the numbers.

I will continue to collect data in an effort to resolve these theories.

You can always find my data and graph here.

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